General Election: UK voters shifting from Tories to Labour on housing

Posted on Tuesday, July 2, 2024

The Conservatives are set to lose nearly half of homeowner votes on Thursday, latest polling from national estate agency Jackson-Stops reveals. 

In 2019’s General Election, homeowners accounted for 38% of the Conservative voter base, whilst today this figure sits at just 19%, the analysis of polling data found.

In a national survey conducted by OnePoll reaching more than 2,000 respondents across the UK, analysis shows that overall, homeowners are planning to vote Labour on Thursday (30%) - a stark change from 2019 where the greater majority of homeowners voted Conservative (38%). This fall in votes amongst homeowners is especially fascinating given the Tory party has historically been known as the party of homeownership.

Examining the data further, Labour is the favourite party for homeowners who own one property with a mortgage receiving 40% of the votes. This a jump from Labour’s 33% of votes from typical one-property mortgage holders witnessed back in 2019.

Conservatives have lost the half of voters in this category, from 27% in 2019, to just 13% today.

There are still some votes up for grabs though, according to the research, with 15% of all homeowners still undecided on how they’ll vote this week, which is the equivalent of over 2.5m  households who own their home - a figure which is likely to be much larger with a UK average of 2.6 residents per household.

Nick Leeming, chairman of Jackson-Stops, said: “We are observing an interesting shift in the voting patterns of homeowners, with more indicating support for Labour in the upcoming general election. A fall in votes driven by homeowners is especially fascinating given the Tory party has historically been known as the party of homeownership. Whether Conservative voters just feel disenchanted more generally, an appetite for change is clearly evident.

“Labour’s commitment to tackling the housing crisis appears to resonate strongly with voters. Indeed, 27% of respondents highlight the delivery of more affordable and social housing as crucial for improving the housing market.”

This is backed up by research from Moneybox that found a third of first-time buyers have pinned their hopes on Labour as the party they most trust to support them, while only 8% believe the Conservatives have their back.

Brian Byrnes, head of personal finance at Moneybox, comments: “With the General Election just around the corner, manifesto pledges from political parties have fallen short of providing much-needed reassurance and tangible financial support to first-time buyers who have been navigating significant challenges over the last few years. 

“With house price growth significantly outpacing wage growth in recent decades, the solutions needed to sustainably boost homeownership without further inflating house prices are complex and will take some time to bear fruit. That is why we at Moneybox are calling for the incoming government to commit to pragmatic measures that can be delivered in the near term, such as future-proofing the lifetime ISA. 

“Committing to a regular review of the property price cap and introducing an annual emergency withdrawal allowance will ensure the product continues to meet the needs of all those who need it most into the future and will better help savers weather the cost of living crisis and any future unforeseen costs.

”These simple steps will help more aspiring first-time buyers save a bigger deposit as well as help generations of young savers build and embed positive saving behaviours that will boost long-term resilience and prosperity.”

Via @EstateAgentToday