House prices forecast to rise based on transactions currently underway

Posted on Tuesday, March 22, 2022

The housing market looks set to brush off the cost-of-living squeeze with property prices expected to hit a new record high in May, new data shows.

Despite signs of a slowdown earlier in the year, the existing supply-demand imbalance continues to propel the market upwards with little evidence yet of the increasing cost of living impacting buying decisions.

Reallymoving analysed data from over 15,000 conveyancing quote forms to provide one of the earliest snapshots of housing market outlook – and what is actually being agreed between buyers and sellers.

Reallymoving captures the purchase price buyers have agreed to pay when they search for conveyancing quotes through the comparison site, typically 12 weeks before they complete. This enables reallymoving to provide a three – month house price forecast that historically has closely tracked the Land Registry’s Price Paid data, published retrospectively.

The figures suggest that the average property price is set to rise sharply this spring to new all-time record of £352,984, as a fall of 0.9% in March and 0.2% in April will be wiped out by a 6.7% surge in May.

Annually, price growth will hit 11.9% in May if the prediction is accurate, albeit against a notably low average price in May 2021.

Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, commented: “Last month we saw some early signs that the market may be beginning to slow but the latest data shows prices rising sharply in May based on activity in February, suggesting that for now the housing market will continue to defy expectations.

“We’re seeing a clash of post-pandemic driven buyer demand and a cost-of-living crisis which is only now really beginning to bite, and as yet it remains a seller’s market and the supply-demand imbalance is continuing to push up prices.

“It’s too early to assess the impact on consumer sentiment from the war in Ukraine and if uncertainty grows and prices rises become more painful, I expect we’ll see the tables begin to turn.”

According to Houghton, first-time buyers are stuck between a rock and a hard place, watching prices go up along with mortgage rates, while facing the challenge of trying to save while paying record high rents – and a shortage of homes to buy.

He added: “Many will be tempted to hold out for price falls but our advice would always be to move when you have all your ducks in a row in terms of raising a deposit, securing a mortgage and finding the right home to buy at a price you can afford.”

Via @PropertyIndustryEye